It’s time for my second annual predictions column — and let’s hope it goes better than the first.
On the eve of the 2022 season, I projected big red zone success for the Russell Wilson-Nathaniel Hackett duo. Oops.
I envisioned a special teams operation that ranked in the top 10. Ouch.
I pegged Albert Okwuegbunam as the team’s third-leading receiver. Oof. At least I can’t make that mistake again.
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I predicted Pat Surtain II and Courtland Sutton would earn All-Pro honors. Hey, one out of two ain’t bad.
I forecast a 10-7 record and wild-card berth. Yikes.
Look, nobody imagined a 5-12, last-place season for the Denver Broncos in 2022, a campaign that saw Hackett get fired after 15 games and Wilson turn in the worst statistical season of his career. It all went off track more rapidly — and with a louder thud — than anyone thought possible heading into the season. I was not the only one whose rosy outlook got rubbed in the mud. It all could have tempted me to cancel the predictions column this year, save myself the pain of being so, well, wrong.
Instead, we’ll use lessons learned — both from the ’22 disaster and the past seven months of wholesale change under new coach Sean Payton — as we take another, perhaps more measured, stab at predicting what we’ll see for the Broncos this fall. Jokes aside, the goal isn’t to nail every one of these — wouldn’t that be a comeback story? — but to try to paint a picture of what could generally unfold over the next 18 weeks.
Hopefully, we won’t all be laughing this time next year.
1. Russell Wilson will throw for 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, complete 64 percent of his passes and take 38 sacks
In 2022, when little else could have gone wrong for the quarterback or his team, Wilson threw a career-low 16 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions. His 60.5 percent completion rate was the lowest of his career. He was sacked a career-high 55 times despite playing only 15 games. The road back to a respectable baseline is not difficult to imagine. The Broncos will be more balanced on offense, even as they deal with a few injuries to start the season. There will be more layups available to Wilson, and during the preseason he showed a willingness to take those — whether it was checkdowns in the flat or open lanes for him to run through.
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The bottom line is the offense for the Broncos should more closely resemble the attacks Wilson piloted in Seattle. He might not be the same quarterback he was when those Seattle Seahawks units were humming — top 11 in scoring each season from 2017 to 2020 — but the muscle memory hasn’t vanished, and he will benefit from Payton’s assertive play calling and the work the Broncos did this offseason to better protect their 34-year-old quarterback.
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2. Jonathon Cooper will lead the Broncos in sacks
The reasons I arrived at this prediction are twofold: 1) The most talented pass rusher on the roster, Randy Gregory, played in only six games in 2022 and has never tallied more than six sacks in a season, largely because of injuries. And 2) Cooper has been Denver’s most consistent player on the edge during the offseason.
“He’s pretty explosive,” Payton said. “I think he’s got good hands, good length, and I do think he plays hard. This front requires physicality to it. When you’re playing a gap-and-a-half- and a two-gap-type defense, it’s a very physical front. His explosiveness and his get-off are things that we value.”
Cooper only has 4.5 sacks in 30 career games, but he’s also never played more than 47 percent of the team’s defensive snaps. That number should jump substantially this season, particularly with Baron Browning beginning the season on the physically unable to perform list. The Broncos have not had a player post double-digit sacks since Von Miller (14.5) and Bradley Chubb (12) did it in 2018. I don’t think Cooper gets to that level, but 8.5 sacks for him with players such as Gregory, Browning, Nik Bonitto, Frank Clark and perhaps even Drew Sanders racking up four or more, and the Broncos should have a more balanced pass rush this season.
If Gregory remains healthy, he has the talent to reach double-digit sacks. When he’s on the field, he’s among the best in the league at creating pressure. But he must show he can be available week in and week out.
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3. Jaleel McLaughlin will have 650 total yards and four touchdowns in his rookie season
Pierre Thomas is an intriguing comp for McLaughlin, the Broncos’ undrafted rookie running back who was the star of training camp and the preseason. Thomas came into the league as an undrafted free agent in 2007. He beat out more established players for a roster spot. He found a role as a pass-catching back who could create mismatches in the open field but could also run between the tackles.
McLaughlin has been that player in training camp, and he might be ahead of where Thomas was as a rookie under Payton. Thomas had 403 total yards and two touchdowns as a rookie in 2007, then broke out for 909 yards and 12 touchdowns in his second season. Payton knows how to use a player of McLaughlin’s skills, and even with two talented backs ahead of him, Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine, McLaughlin will have an impactful role in Denver’s offense.
As for the Broncos’ leading rusher? Perine will lead a balanced attack with 905 yards. Don’t get me wrong, Williams will contribute significantly to this offense during his first season back from a major knee injury. But it’s going to take time before he’s the same player who tallied 1,219 total yards while bowling over defenders as a rookie in 2021.
Broncos undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin was the star of training camp and the preseason. (Ron Chenoy / USA Today)4. The Broncos’ leading receiver will be …
Sutton. The sixth-year receiver is still just 27 years old and is three years fully removed from the ACL injury he suffered early in the 2020 season. He changed his diet and workout regimen this offseason and came into camp in his best shape since his Pro Bowl season in 2019. There is a clear trust Wilson has in Sutton, who has missed only two combined games the past two seasons while proving to be the most durable player in Denver’s wide receivers group.
Even during a year in which the Broncos struggled mightily on offense, Sutton had 64 catches for 829 yards in 2022. I think we’re looking at something closer to an 80-1,000 split in ’23. If the Broncos get that from Sutton and something in the same neighborhood from Jerry Jeudy, chances are they will have a top-20 scoring offense for the first time since 2014. But I’m giving Sutton the edge as the top receiver because of Jeudy’s history of getting dinged up and the fact No. 14 simply seems to be in a good place mentally and physically entering the season.
5. The Broncos will finish 9-8 and see their playoff drought extend to eight seasons
Some signs point to obvious improvement for the 2023 Broncos. For starters, Payton’s plus-.500 record in one-score games throughout his long career as a head coach makes me certain Denver isn’t going 4-9 in games decided by seven points or less like it did last season. This team has more talent on the offensive line — at least among starters — and is far better in the backfield than it was last season. A more effective rushing offense will do wonders for Wilson, who should at least rise back to the level he played during his final two seasons in Seattle. And the defense returns seven starters and is deeper than the one that finished in the top 10 in most advanced metrics last season.
All of those things will account for a four-win turnaround and Denver’s first winning season since 2016. But it still plays in the AFC West, where the Kansas City Chiefs are king so long as Patrick Mahomes is taking prime-of-his-career snaps. The Los Angeles Chargers also employ one of the game’s best quarterbacks, Justin Herbert, and Denver’s schedule overall is one of the toughest in the league when measured by the talent of opposing quarterbacks.
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The Broncos simply aren’t talented enough yet to be in the mix. If enough bounces go the right way, this could perhaps be a wild-card team, but two consecutive years without premium draft picks has thinned the cupboard, and Payton will need another offseason to get the kind of players he needs to push this franchise back into real contention.
(Top photo: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
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